mNAVwatch

Methodology

How Liquidation mNAV is calculated

The question for every company is the same: if it sold all its bitcoin today and paid every claim in the order required, what would one common share receive? The operating business counts for nothing. The site presents facts from company dashboards and filings and takes no positions.

The waterfall

  1. Realize BTC. BTC held, including BTC lent out or posted as margin at face, times the BTC price.
  2. Add other assets. Cash and cash reserves at face. Marketable securities at market. Receivables, intangibles and the operating business at zero.
  3. Pay secured debt from its collateral.
  4. Pay unsecured debt and other liabilities pro rata.
  5. Test each convertible. A holder converts when its share of the residual is worth more than par plus accrued interest.
  6. Pay preferred stock by seniority, at the liquidation preference plus accumulated unpaid dividends. Where the terms say the preference amount floats, it is the greater of the stated amount and the 10-day average trading price (example: STRF trading at $103.50 is redeemed at the greater of $103.50 and $100.00).
  7. Exercise in-the-money warrants and options, adding their exercise cash, then divide the residual by outstanding common shares.

Liquidation mNAV

Share price ÷ liquidation value per share. Below 1.00x, common trades under what it would receive in a wind-up.

Assumptions

  • BTC sale haircut 0%.
  • BTC lent out, posted as margin, or held in Lightning channels counts at face with a counterparty or liquidity flag.
  • Strategy's USD Reserve counts as cash at face.
  • Taxes on BTC gains and wind-down costs are ignored.

Data

All figures from company dashboards unless only available from the most recently filed financials.

  • Live: BTC (Coinbase), share and preferred prices (Yahoo Finance, 10-day averages for floating preferences), FX (Bank of Canada daily rates).
  • From filings and company releases: holdings, claims, share counts, conversion terms.